Pierre Wack and the members of the Shell Oil planning team brought “What if?” scenario planning to the forefront. The idea was to use the question What if? to help leaders think differently about their work. Defining scenarios that were possible but not currently in view made the exercise valuable, especially since some of those scenarios did materialize in time.
Let’s consider a few statistics that might help us form our own What if? scenarios for ministry.
Lifeway Research found that a personal invitation from a friend or neighbor would effectively reach 63% of unchurched people. Americans Open to Outreach from Churches - Lifeway Research
The research is pre-COVID, which raises the question whether this percentage is still true today.
What if the percentage was 50% now or maybe 70%?
What if 70% of the unchurched within two miles of your church accepted an invitation to attend a Bible study group with you offering to pick them up or meet them at the door?
How would that change your strategy for reaching the unchurched in the community?
What new Bible study groups might need to be added?
One in three who become a part of a Bible study group will accept Jesus within the first 12 months.
This number has been espoused by several experts over the past hundred years, from Arthur Flake to Elmer Towns to Ken Braddy. This was true in churches I served when we tracked it for a season. Let’s put this into a scenario.
What if one third of the people who accepted an invitation from someone in your church to attend a Bible study group became a follower of Jesus in the next year?
What if only one-fourth did?
Or what if it was higher?
How would knowing the percentage of people invited who became believers in a year impact how you positioned groups and what you tracked each week?
The lessons in Lifeway’s adult resources in October of 2026 all lend themselves to gospel conversations.
This fall, Bible Studies for Life focuses on forgiveness, Explore the Bible covers Romans, and The Gospel Project studies the earthly ministry of Jesus.
What if focused attention was given to inviting unchurched or disconnected people to a Bible study group in October of 2026? What if 50%, 60%, or 70% of the people you invited heard lessons that naturally included gospel conversations?
What if?
October is Outreach Month
Find out more about conducting an outreach month in October 2026 — make the commitment and receive a planning guide, idea bank, and monthly prayer reminders.