Increasingly throughout the world people face the prospect of living far more than "three score and ten." And still there is more news about the changing family. Married couples are a bare majority of U.S. households. Only about one-third of households have any children under 18 present. People who live alone comprise one-fourth of U.S. households.

 Do you want to live to be a hundred years old? Already the fastest growing age group is 90 plus, and as might be inferred from this discussion, the median age of the population is growing older. In 1990, it was 33 years; in 1995, it moved up to 34.7; and in 2000, it is 36.4. The non-Hispanic white population in the U.S. will decline to 67.6 percent, and minority populations will increase to 13.2 percent African-American; 13.2 percent Hispanic; 5.9 Asian; and 0.9 percent Native American, Eskimo, and Aleutian. By the middle of this century, it is projected that the United States population will be one-half non-Hispanic white and moving toward a majority that is currently a minority.

Christian leaders of adults must face the demographic realities at the beginning of this new millennium. Consider these facts:

• In 2010, just a few years away, there will be 2.9 workers for every person receiving Social Security. In 1950, there were 16.6 workers for every person receiving Social Security.
  
  
• In 2010, a "1997 dollar" will be worth about 63 cents.
  
  
• In 2000, your chance of contracting malignant melanoma is 1 in 75. In 1935, the risk was 1 in 1,500.
  
  
• Shortly after 2020, there will be more Americans over age 65 than under age 13.
  
  
• Not surprisingly, there will be a drop in the number of persons in the 25–34 category, while adults 45–54 will realize a dramatic growth. The 1990 Census reveals that 33 states had fewer youth in 1990 than they did in 1980.
  
  
• The youngest baby boomers—those born between 1956 and 1964 are moving out of their childbearing years.
  
  
• Furthermore, 70 million baby boomers are lifetime learners.
  
  
• And youth account for only 16 percent of the population.

Already apparent is an enormous growth in the number of older persons in our nation. Revolutionary changes in society call for revolutionary thinking and innovative solutions. Aging must be viewed as a lifelong and society-wide process, not just a phenomenon affecting older adults. As an example, older persons will become more involved in civic life than their parents. People will live longer and have several careers. Already government agencies classify elderly status as age 62 or older, rather than 65. Coincidentally, that is the average retirement age.

The Census Bureau reports that the number of older Americans is growing faster than other segments of the population. The preeminent fact about the elderly population is its size and comparatively rapid growth: There were 34.1 million people age 65 years or older in the United States in 1997. One in 8 Americans is a senior citizen today, compared to only 1 in 25 at the dawn of the last century.

The number of older Americans has increased by more than 9 percent since 1990, compared with a rise of 7 percent among persons under age 65. And this disparity is occurring at a low ebb in elderly population growth. Men and women reaching age 65 today were born during the Great Depression, when birthrates were particularly low. This relative pause in elderly population increases will end abruptly around 2010, when those born during the post-World War II baby boom begin to retire. Today's elderly population is expected to double by 2030, expanding at a rate of almost 3 percent each year to almost 70 million people. The Census Bureau estimates that 20 percent of Americans will be older than retirement age in 2030, compared with less than 13 percent today. These demographic trends merit further examination.

• The largest and fastest growing segments of the older population include many people who have historically been vulnerable economically: women, minorities, and the "oldest old." This explosive growth sends a straightforward message to our churches and church leaders: more and more of our church buildings, church budgets, staff member's time and creativity should be devoted to seniors and their needs and potential. However this begs the further question: which subgroups of seniors need this special attention?
  
  
• The ranks of the oldest Americans—those 85 years old and over—are swelling much more rapidly than those of the "young" elderly are. These oldest Americans made up less than 9 percent of the elderly population in 1980; they have grown to more than 11 percent of the elderly today and may make up 23 percent by 2050. As a consequence church leaders, members of building committees, and others need to know about special building considerations for the elderly. For instance, older persons with sight problems need increased lighting.
  
  
• Elderly women greatly outnumber men, particularly as they age. Women can expect to live 19 years after reaching age 65, compared to 15.8 years for men. In 1997, there were 143 elderly women for every 100 elderly men. For the oldest old (85 plus) the ratio grows to 248 women for every 100 men.
  
  
• Finally, more of America's seniors are minorities. Racial and ethnic minorities are younger on average than whites and have significantly lower life expectancies; nevertheless, their representation in the elderly population is increasing. In 1997, 15 percent of the U.S. elderly population were minorities; 8 percent were African-American. By 2025, 24 percent will be minorities.

Is there a connection between these demographics and your church? Yes. These trends reflect the statistical study of the population with regard to their size and density. In other words, the trends in the United States likely also reflect similar trends in your community, your church field, and the adults in your church who are 46–53, both members and prospects. Demographic studies provide valuable information.

Christian leaders should know about adults in general, about their age, level of education, how many people are in a household and who they are, their income group, their employment status, and many other distinctives. If, for instance, you are teaching a Sunday School class of persons 46–53, you will need to know pertinent information about them. It is not enough for teachers to know their subject matter well; they must also know about the people in the class. Part of the blame for ineffective lessons or classroom studies can be laid on teachers who have studied their lesson well but cannot relate lesson content to the real needs of participants. They have understudied members and perhaps have overstudied their lesson.

Of course, teachers assume they know their participants based on their experiences together at church. Unfortunately, adults often do not project their needs honestly in church. In fact, an adult can easily appear to be one kind of person at church but a different kind of person the rest of the time. We can gain some information from church experiences, but that is no match for knowing each person one-on-one in personal visits and other engagements.

One value of demographic studies about the church community is that church leaders can match the ministries of the church more closely to those whom they are called to serve. One church had a long history of Anglo ministers. The church field began to change to an older, Hispanic neighborhood in the 70s, yet the church still retained the same staff composition. A new pastor came onto the field in 1998, looked at the field, and found them not "white" unto harvest but brown and black. He looked at adults in general—their ages, levels of education, the number of people in a typical household and who they were, their income groups, their employment status, and many other distinctives. With this information and the guidance of a church growth task force, the church decided to call a Hispanic minister of music and senior adults. This combination took some adjustment for the congregation, but in the past year they have seen a number of Hispanics join the previously all-Anglo church. One is now a deacon.

In another case, Calvary Baptist Church recognized that their building allocations did not match the new demographics of the 21st century. In the 60s, they had a large youth group and built their present building accordingly. Now they have fewer youth and children, but the adult population the church is called to reach can barely fit into the two department rooms, which were sufficient 30 years ago. What will they do? In the next few years they plan to convert youth and children's space into adult rooms to provide for the needed and anticipated growth in adults, particularly senior adults. On the drawing board are six adult departments instead of the current two.

For further reading on adult development, consult Helen Bee and Barbara Bjorklaund, The Journey of Adulthood, Fourth Edition (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2000).